During a speech to parliament on Monday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou discussed the pressing need to reduce national debt, describing it as a “real test” for his leadership ahead of a no-confidence vote that could potentially lead to the fall of his government and plunge France back into political turmoil.
Less than nine months into his role, Bayrou’s administration is tasked with managing the 2026 budget, which requires savings of €44 billion.
Addressing the National Assembly, Bayrou stated: “This is a real test for me as Prime Minister, and I’ve chosen this path,” emphasizing that “the future of the country is at stake” due to its “excessive debt” (114% of GDP).
He remarked, “Our country operates under the illusion of growing wealth, yet it becomes poorer each year. This is a silent and unseen drain that is intolerable.” Bayrou cautioned, “You have the power to topple the government, but you cannot erase reality,” likening the burden of debt to “subjugation by a military force” that denies freedom.
Escalating Political Crisis
The vote among the 577 lawmakers began at 19:00 (17:00 GMT), with the outcome largely anticipated, as Macron’s supporting coalition lacks a majority. Opposition parties, the far-right, and the radical left have announced their intention to vote against the budget proposal.
Eyes are now on President Emmanuel Macron, who is set to lose his second Prime Minister since his unexpected decision in 2024 to dissolve the National Assembly, which has thrown the nation into a significant political and financial crisis without securing a majority in the new assembly.
Consultations and “Red Lines”
The National Rally party (far-right) is pushing for new legislative elections. A recent poll indicated that Marine Le Pen’s party could secure 33% of the votes in the first round of elections, leading significantly over both the left and the presidential camp.
Currently, the president is discounting the option of dissolving the National Assembly again, although close aides suggest he is keen to swiftly appoint a new Prime Minister.
Consultations are already underway, with the Socialist Party positioning itself as a potential central player, expressing “willingness” to take on power, but only in a left-leaning government excluding Macron’s supporters.
Macron finds himself trapped between a far-right that has been gaining influence over recent years and a radical left that is increasingly hardline and hostile, compelling him to seek alliances with centrist and right-leaning figures who are acceptable to the Socialist parties.
A close associate of the president remarked, “Stability is essential. The most stable path lies in a common ground dialogue with the socialists.”
However, this task is daunting due to party rigidness. According to Matthieu Gallard from the Ipsos polling institute, “The current dilemma in France is that each party has its red lines, which makes it utterly impossible to form a coalition. No coalition holds a majority, nor can any coalition sustain itself permanently.”
Several names are circulating for potential candidates, including Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, and Economy Minister Éric Lombard.
Social Movements and Economic Challenges
Macron faces mounting challenges amid strong public distrust and dwindling popularity, which has reached its lowest point since he took office in 2017, with 77% of citizens expressing dissatisfaction with his governance.
Alongside the budget crisis and political deadlock, France is bracing for a period of social unrest, starting with a test on Wednesday.
The “Civility” movement, which emerged over the summer on social media under the slogan “Let’s disrupt everything,” and backed by various unions and the radical left, has called for a nationwide shutdown on Wednesday, though the extent of actual mobilization remains uncertain.
Unions are also organizing a day of strikes and demonstrations on September 18, protesting the government’s policies and the budget proposal from Bayrou, although it is likely that his government will have already fallen by that date.
On Friday, Fitch Ratings will announce its credit rating for French debt, which may be downgraded in light of the current circumstances.