The US Federal Reserve has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as of September 17, bringing the federal funds target range down to 4%–4.25%, marking the first decrease since December 2024.
This decision, which aims to support the economy amidst a declining labor market, was widely anticipated by investors following Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole and indications of a slowing job market. In anticipation of this announcement, the S&P 500 increased by 3% over the previous month.
In its official statement, the Fed remarked: “Recent statistics indicate that the growth of economic activity has moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have decelerated, and although the unemployment rate has slightly risen, it remains low. Inflation has increased and continues to be somewhat elevated… To support its objectives and considering the changes in risk balances, the committee has chosen to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4%–4.25%.”
The central bank also hinted at the potential for two additional rate cuts in 2025, barring any unexpected inflation or employment data, although its forecasts suggest only one reduction in 2026.
Market analyst Josh Gilbert from eToro commented on this development: “This decision by the Fed provides a supportive backdrop for investors. While the market may need to take a breather following strong gains, historical data shows that rate cuts outside of recessions typically act as a positive catalyst for equities. Key sectors to monitor include technology, small cap stocks, housing, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.”
The Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on the GCC
Hamza Dweik, head of Trading MENA at Saxo Bank, discussed the implications of the Fed’s decision: “The effects will reverberate across economies in the UAE, the broader GCC region, and Jordan, where monetary policies often align with the Fed due to their currency pegs. The immediate outcome will be reduced borrowing costs, alleviating financial pressures on governments, corporations, and households alike. This could stimulate investment and fiscal activity, particularly in sectors outside of oil.”
Dweik further noted that cheaper borrowing costs are likely to revive interest in real estate and infrastructure projects within the UAE and the Gulf region. Additionally, the retail and consumer sectors may see a boost as households redirect savings from lower loan repayments towards discretionary spending. In Jordan, the relief would be more direct for households sensitive to debt expenses.
Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, stated: “For the GCC, this rate cut translates to lower borrowing expenses, improved liquidity, and a more favorable environment for growth. Key sectors that stand to benefit include real estate and consumer discretionary industries, such as retail, automotive, tourism, and hospitality. Although banks might experience narrower net-interest margins, an increase in credit demand could counterbalance this. Notably, national diversification initiatives—from Saudi Vision 2030 to the UAE’s industrial strategy—will gain traction thanks to cheaper capital.”
According to Valecha, the advantages for Jordan may be limited due to significant fiscal challenges and public debt at approximately 117% of GDP; however, households and small businesses could still experience benefits from more affordable loans.
For consumers throughout the Gulf, analysts predict an immediate effect: lower rates for credit cards, mortgages, and personal loans. However, savers may see diminished returns on deposits, leading investors to shift funds into equities, real estate, or alternative investments.
GCC Central Banks Respond with Rate Cuts
In response to the Fed’s actions, Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy, decreased its repurchase agreement (repo) rate by 25 bps to 4.75% and its reverse repo rate by the same margin to 4.25%. The central bank of the UAE similarly lowered the base rate for its overnight deposit facility by 25 bps to 4.15%, down from 4.40%, effective Thursday, according to reports.