According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest World Trade Report, released on Thursday, artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to increase the value of international trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by the year 2040, provided that appropriate supportive policies are in place.
The flagship publication from the WTO Secretariat indicates that enhanced productivity and reduced trade expenses resulting from AI could lead to substantial growth in both international trade and global economic output. Various scenarios in the report estimate that global trade may rise by 34% to 37% by 2040, while global GDP could increase by 12% to 13% during the same period.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized in the report’s introduction that “AI holds immense promise for reducing trade costs and enhancing productivity. However, the access to AI technologies and the capability for engaging in digital trade remains significantly unequal across different regions.”
WTO Highlights New Opportunities Presented by AI
The Director-General further stated, “With an appropriate combination of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can generate new avenues for growth in all economies. Establishing the right frameworks will enable trade to play a key role in leveraging AI for the benefit of all. The WTO is devoted to facilitating this initiative.”
The report underscores that international trade can significantly contribute to AI-driven growth by providing economies with access to essential AI-enhancing goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate products. According to the WTO, trade in these goods amounted to $2.3 trillion in 2023.
In one potential scenario presented, if low- and middle-income nations can reduce their digital infrastructure disparities with high-income nations by 50% and adopt AI more extensively, their income levels could see increases of 15% and 14%, respectively.
However, the report also identifies potential hurdles, highlighting that the number of quantitative restrictions imposed on AI-related products has surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024, primarily enforced by high- and upper middle-income nations. Some low-income countries still have bound tariffs on AI-enabling goods reaching as high as 45%.
The WTO indicated that implementing educational, training, and labor market policies will be essential to ensure that AI does not exacerbate inequality within economies.
The organization reiterated its commitment to promoting equitable access to AI, noting that members have raised 80 trade-related concerns about AI. Additionally, targeted discussions have been held under the E-Commerce Work Programme.
The report concludes by suggesting that committing to broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updating commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services could enhance the affordability and accessibility of AI on a global scale.