The trigger mechanism, set to activate at midnight on Saturday, requires the United Nations Security Council to restore international sanctions on Iran for its failure to adhere to commitments outlined in the nuclear agreement.
Here is an overview of this unique mechanism.
How Does the Mechanism Work
In 2015, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2231, establishing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which involves monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions imposed on the country. France, the UK, and Germany, referred to as the European Troika, along with the United States, China, and Russia, signed the agreement in Vienna.
Resolution 2231 includes a provision considered a significant diplomatic innovation that allows for the automatic re-imposition of sanctions on Iran if there is a substantial violation of the agreement, without the possibility for Security Council members to veto the move. This trigger mechanism is commonly known as the “snapback” mechanism.
Essentially, any of the signatory countries can notify the Security Council if they believe Iran is not honoring its commitments.
Following such a notification, a 30-day countdown begins, after which sanctions are reinstated if no decision has been made to extend the suspension.
Why Is the European Troika Seeking to Activate the Mechanism
On August 28, the foreign ministers of the European Troika activated the trigger mechanism after compiling a list of Iran’s commitments that have been breached, notably highlighting that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile exceeds the agreed limit by “forty times.”
In truth, the agreement has essentially lost its validity since the United States withdrew unilaterally in 2018 during Trump’s presidency.
Following this U.S. exit, Iran began gradually abandoning its obligations, a situation exacerbated after the twelve-day conflict initiated by Israel in mid-June, with U.S. involvement targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.
Negotiations between Iran and the U.S., which began in April, have stalled, and Iran has officially suspended its limited cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In early September, Iran and the IAEA announced a new cooperation agreement, and both parties reported on Friday that IAEA inspectors had resumed operations in Iran.
What Is Iran’s Position
European nations, which have sought to revive the nuclear agreement through diplomacy, assert that their reasons for activating the mechanism are “clear and unambiguous legally,” but Iran sees it differently.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Friday evening that Europeans had ignored Iran’s efforts.
The Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, accused the U.S. of bad faith and reiterated that Iran “has never sought” to develop nuclear weapons.
However, he dismissed any threats of Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on Friday.
What Are the Potential Consequences for Iran
This mechanism allows for the restoration of bans on nuclear-related weapons and equipment, as well as financial constraints that had been lifted a decade ago.
Such measures would “add a layer of multilateral sanctions to the unilateral ones imposed by the U.S.,” according to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.
Nonetheless, experts anticipate “a tug of war over the enforcement of sanctions, particularly if Russia and China oppose them and seek to delay their implementation.”
Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, suggested that “the UN measures would have a modest economic impact considering the weight of existing U.S. and European sanctions.”
However, she warned that this could lead to “an escalation of retaliatory actions” between the U.S. and Iran “in the absence of an effective diplomatic strategy,” according to Davenport.