Experts and government officials are expressing confusion regarding President Donald Trump’s recent statement in which he declared that due to testing programs by other countries, he has directed the Department of Defense to commence nuclear weapons testing if needed.
This announcement represents a significant shift from decades of U.S. nuclear policy and could have far-reaching implications for relations with America’s adversaries. However, the statement lacked specifics about the tests’ nature or timeline. The last nuclear test by the U.S. occurred in 1992, prior to President George H.W. Bush imposing a moratorium on such tests at the end of the Cold War.
As a result, Trump’s declaration has sparked significant concern among nuclear arms control experts who view it as an unnecessary and escalatory step, arguing that the U.S. has no technical, military, or political justification for resuming nuclear tests.
Currently, the National Nuclear Security Administration is not prepared to conduct tests and would require at least 36 months to initiate limited underground detonations at the former Nevada site, according to a report by Agence France-Presse.
In an effort to understand Trump’s true intentions, experts have proposed three main hypotheses, ranging from a response to recent Russian military advancements to the possibility of resuming tests which could usher in a new nuclear era.
The latter hypothesis suggests actual testing could be reinstated. Supporters of Trump have long advocated for the resumption of tests, with the political aim being to push negotiations with Russia and China toward a trilateral arms reduction agreement.
Moscow’s Position
The announcement from Trump came shortly after Russia claimed to have successfully tested a nuclear-powered missile known as Burevestnik and a massive torpedo dubbed Poseidon, both capable of carrying nuclear warheads. However, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that these are not “nuclear tests” in the literal sense, stating, “If he means Burevestnik tests, these are not nuclear tests. All nations are advancing their defense systems, but that does not equate to conducting nuclear detonations.” He reminded that President Putin has repeatedly stated: if someone withdraws from the moratorium, Russia will respond in kind.
Chinese Reaction
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiaxun, expressed that China hopes the United States will genuinely adhere to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and take tangible steps to maintain the disarmament regime and prevent nuclear proliferation.
Lyle Morris, a military affairs expert at the Asia Policy Institute, commented that the announcement felt “completely out of the blue,” indicating that the Chinese were taken aback by this declaration ahead of a summit, which he described as an “unwelcome distraction” during a diplomatically sensitive time, according to a CNN report.
Global Context and Treaties
Since 1945, more than 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted globally, but most countries ceased testing in the 1990s. China conducted its last test in 1996, and Russia in 1990, with North Korea being the only exception in 2017.
The United States, Russia, and China are signatories of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty of 1996, which prohibits any “nuclear military or civilian explosion.” However, the treaty has not yet come into force because some countries, including the United States, have not yet formally ratified it.