At the onset of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia faced a significant shortage of drones, which granted Ukraine a tactical advantage for long-range attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In an effort to address this gap, Russia sought drone imports from allied nations. However, in recent months, it has successfully ramped up domestic production of high-quality drones in its factories.
This week, Russia launched its largest drone assault on Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, deploying a staggering 728 drones. Ukrainian defenses are already struggling to cope with the sheer volume of drone attacks being orchestrated by Russia.
A report by the Wall Street Journal highlighted the transformation in Russia’s drone production capabilities, revealing that over the past year, Russian manufacturers have been churning out substantial quantities of offensive drones, thereby establishing a formidable fleet that operates above Ukrainian airspace almost daily.
According to Ukrainian officials, the attack carried out early Wednesday marked the largest assault to date, with 728 drones and decoys targeted at cities in western Ukraine during the early morning hours. This escalation followed shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Russia for its sluggish pace in peace negotiations, stating that the U.S. was receiving “a lot of nonsense” from President Vladimir Putin.
Analysis from the Media Resilience Center in the UK, an organization investigating open-source intelligence, indicated that over 24,000 drones have been launched at Ukrainian towns and cities since the start of the year. In fact, the number of drones deployed in Wednesday’s onslaught exceeded the total used by Russia in July of the previous year.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat remarked, “They are consistently breaking records.”
The intensification of these assaults coincided with rising tensions between Russia and the U.S. Days prior, Russia recorded a previous high after a phone conversation between Trump and Putin, during which the U.S. President expressed his disappointment over Putin’s reluctance to halt the warfare.
The Wall Street Journal reported that a pivotal agreement between Russia and Iran in November 2022 paved the way for these extensive air assaults. This agreement involved the purchase and domestic production of the offensive “Shahed” drones in Russia, costing Moscow $1.75 billion for technology, equipment, source codes, and the acquisition of 6,000 drones, according to the nonprofit organization C4ADS.
At that time, Russia had depleted much of its stockpile of long-range missiles, making the purchased drones an efficient and relatively affordable alternative for continuing airstrikes. Estimates of the production cost for a single drone vary, falling between $35,000 and $60,000, according to defense analysts.
Prototypes were delivered directly from Iran, but Russia also invested in technology transfer; gradually, it managed to master its own production lines. In the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, east of Moscow, facilities were expanded to meet manufacturing demands, utilizing Chinese components and labor imported from Africa.
Despite several attacks on the facility by Ukrainian drones, Russia has continued its production efforts, and Kyiv intelligence officials report that Moscow has started relocating parts of its production lines to other facilities within its borders.
Russia views local drone manufacturing as a means to reduce its dependency on allies, especially given the recent heavy Israeli bombardment of Iran, which has strained Iran’s own drone inventories due to counter-attacks targeting Israel.
Additionally, Russia has made enhancements to the original “Shahed” designs, resulting in Russian versions that are faster and quieter, thereby improving their maneuverability and destructive potential.
Ukrainian officials claim that Russia is currently producing over 5,000 long-range drones each month, some capable of flying distances up to 2,500 kilometers. This production scale has enabled Moscow to saturate Ukrainian airspace with its attack drones.
In response, Ukraine is addressing this threat with fighter jets, helicopters, mobile ground air defense teams, and an increasing reliance on drones specifically designed for intercepting Russian UAVs.
Meanwhile, Russia is continually adapting its tactics to maximize damage, with one of its primary objectives being to compel Ukraine to expend costly intercept missiles against decoy drones with no warheads. Moscow has deployed hundreds of these dummy drones, designed to resemble “Shahed” drones, to divert Ukrainian air defenses from actual threats.