Hundreds of Palestinians continue to suffer as their homes are destroyed, plunging them into an uncertain future amid the ongoing Israeli conflict in Gaza, which has now entered its third year, resulting in over 67,000 Palestinian deaths. While mediators and political partners gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, alongside leaders from Israel and Hamas, the question remains: is this the end of the war?
Both sides are under pressure to pursue a resolution, as they await clarity on the implementation process of any agreement. However, no one closely following the negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh can definitively state that an agreement has been reached, even though there are signs of progress.
After numerous rounds of marathon talks held in Cairo, Doha, and Washington, Arab and international diplomacy has successfully halted the conflict twice. But will the third time be the charm?
On the ground in Gaza, there are no indications that the war is nearing an end. Israeli airstrikes continue unabated, and the bloodshed persists. Yet, even as shells and rockets rain down on refugee centers and displacement camps, there exists a flicker of hope that political efforts might succeed in curbing the violence and extinguishing the raging conflict.
In the beleaguered territory, residents receive news from Sharm El-Sheikh with cautious optimism, albeit wary of potential Israeli obstructions, despite American pressure and Israel’s earlier acknowledgment of Washington’s plan.
This combination of anxiety and restrained hope is understandable, as expressed by displaced individual Hamad Abou Awda from Beit Hanoun. He points out that past experiences from the negotiations over the past two years of conflict have left many Gazans skeptical. Time and again, a truce seemed imminent, and reports of negotiation advancement emerged, but nothing materialized, he lamented.
Despite positive developments reported from Egypt, resident Ali Abou Asi from Bani Suheila, east of Khan Younis, remains unconvinced, especially with the continued airstrikes. He remarks: “If there is a genuine desire to stop the war, it should at least reflect in decreased bombardments. Excessive optimism stems from the pervasive despair and frustration in people’s lives. We feel like drowning individuals grasping at straws, fearing that Israel may sabotage any deal. I express this while attempting to return home, yet I remain skeptical.”
Across vast areas of Gaza, an unusual movement of displaced people rushing back to their homes has been observed, despite ongoing Israeli military control and grave conditions in the vicinity, indicating a strong yearning to end the conflict and swiftly return to normalcy.
Negotiations
Observers express concern over Israel’s ability to complicate ongoing discussions with numerous details or vague provisions that could derail negotiations. The last agreement made on January 19 was supposed to unfold in three phases; however, Israel has only executed one stage and soon reverted to aggressive military action.
Three Scenarios
According to political analyst Mohamed Draghmeh, three scenarios for the negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh are possible: a prisoner exchange agreement, which may quickly lead to a return to conflict; a comprehensive deal under American auspices that both parties adhere to; or a failure of the talks, resulting in collapsed peace prospects.
However, Draghmeh hinted at significant potential for success by encouraging Hamas to address the issues of conflict piece by piece rather than as a whole, following the advice of mediators from Egypt and Qatar to enhance the American plan’s stipulations during its implementation, as alternatives are increasingly limited.