Once again, terrorism has resurfaced in Syria, following months of the overthrow of Assad’s regime and its allies, through an attack targeting an Orthodox church in the heart of Damascus. This incident is regarded as the first organized move by the terrorist group ISIS against the newly established transitional authority.
The attack has evoked memories of the bloodshed that characterized the group’s expansion from 2014 to 2019, when vast areas of Syria and Iraq turned into open battlegrounds for relentless violence. This situation prompted the formation of the “International Coalition to Defeat ISIS,” led by the United States, which played a crucial role in eliminating the group’s territorial control.
Such a terrorist act arrives at a highly sensitive moment for the new government in Damascus, which is still striving for recognition and legitimacy in the international arena as the transitional phase begins.
International communities and Western envoys visiting Damascus have urged the new authorities to ensure representation and protection for minorities, as well as to involve them actively in shaping the country’s future.
Initial steps to bridge communal divides have been noted. Despite some areas experiencing violence, Syrian Christians have shown confidence in the new authority, even though they have faced isolated harassment from individuals operating outside the leadership’s commands, positioning them as a critical component for establishing pluralism.
Nevertheless, concerns in Syria extend beyond security issues, even though they take precedence. They also encompass disruptions to the economic recovery that had begun to show promise following a gradual lifting of sanctions and international openness towards the country.
Syria was expected to attract foreign investment and labor contracts in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and public services, yet regional developments, particularly the escalating Iranian-Israeli tensions.
Specifically, the joint Israeli-American attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has caused confusion in this trajectory. There is a fear that the recent terrorist attack could further delay or completely freeze this openness unless it is swiftly and decisively contained.
The deeper objective of the ISIS initiative is not solely to undermine security but also to deprive the Syrian government of international momentum and political support, particularly amidst encouraging U.S. signals for the reintegration of Syria into the global system. The organization has previously used this type of tactical assault to disrupt any political transition or hinder reconstruction efforts in formerly liberated areas.
As security agencies continue to be restructured and local police forces and law enforcement institutions remain underdeveloped, the current environment is still vulnerable, presenting the government with a real test of its deterrent and control capabilities.
Complicating matters further are the multiple fronts of hostility that ISIS currently faces in Syria, including opposition from the Syrian Democratic Forces, local armed groups in Sweida, and the Damascus government itself.
However, despite this objective convergence of adversities, these three parties have yet to establish solid security or political coordination. With an increasing need for a unified internal front against terrorism, overcoming political disagreements and addressing representation and rights is essential to creating an effective mutual defense mechanism that thwarts the organization’s cells and prevents their resurgence in uncontrollable pockets.
Internal security remains a significant challenge for the new authority, especially in regions still beyond state control or under fragile decentralized influence, alongside a resurgence of extremist group activities in unconventional forms.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has previously warned that “ISIS” has shifted from indiscriminate operations to “calculated actions,” indicating a potential return of dormant cell activity.
In late May, the group claimed its first announced attack against the new government forces, characterized by a landmine explosion targeting a security patrol in Sweida, resulting in one fatality, according to reports from the observatory and the SITE intelligence group monitoring terrorist organizations.
Authorities have also reported thwarting planned attacks by dismantling a cell near Damascus and killing four members in clashes with security forces in Aleppo. In light of this situation, Syria appears to be on the brink of a critical phase:
either establishing security and stability that would enhance recovery and openness prospects or leaving gaps exploited by terrorism to obstruct all gains made in recent months.