Two days ahead of the announcement of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, experts suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump will likely not be among the recipients, despite his ambitions for the award.
The prize will be awarded on Friday in Oslo, against a backdrop of escalating armed conflicts globally, reaching levels unseen for decades, making the process of selecting a winner more challenging and intriguing.
As the name of the laureate remains under wraps until the official announcement, predictions abound regarding individuals and organizations that might be honored. This year, it appears the committee is leaning toward acknowledging a figure or entity that is less controversial and more committed to the ideals of peace and international cooperation.
The landscape seems open just days before the Nobel Peace Prize is bestowed, but one fact has become rather clear: Donald Trump will not be the winner he desires this year. The question remains, however, which name will the Norwegian Nobel Committee ultimately select?
The Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded at 11:00 AM local time (12:00 PM GMT) in Oslo, amid a grim atmosphere, as the number of armed conflicts involving at least one nation has reached a peak this year, a trend not observed since Uppsala University began its tracking in 1946.
Analysts believe it is almost certain that the U.S. president will not receive the award this year, despite his claims of having played a role in resolving eight conflicts.
Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert in international relations, told AFP, “No, Trump will not be the winner this year,” adding, “But perhaps next year? By then, the clouds over his various initiatives, especially around the Gaza crisis, might have lifted.”
Experts argue that Trump’s assertion of being a “peace maker” is an exaggeration, raising concerns over the implications of his “America First” policy.
Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), points out that “beyond his mediation attempts in Gaza, we see policies that contradict the intentions and principles outlined in the Nobel will,” which emphasize international cooperation, brotherhood among nations, and disarmament.
From withdrawal from international organizations and multi-lateral treaties to trade wars affecting various countries including long-time “friends and allies,” alongside ambitions regarding Greenland and deployment of military forces in U.S. cities, as well as encroachments on academic freedom and freedom of expression, there is a lengthy list of grievances against Trump that could prevent him from being awarded the prestigious prize.
Jørgen Watten Friedens, chair of the five-member Nobel Peace Prize Committee, notes, “We look at the big picture,” adding, “What matters overall is the organization or individual from a comprehensive perspective. However, we primarily focus on what they have actually accomplished in the service of peace.”
A less controversial winner
This year, a total of 338 individuals and organizations have been nominated for the Nobel Prize, with the list remaining confidential for fifty years. Thousands of people, including parliamentarians, ministers from various countries, previous laureates, university professors, and members of the Nobel committee are eligible to nominate candidates for the prestigious award.
In 2024, the Nobel Prize was awarded to “Nihon Hidankyo,” a group of survivors from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in recognition of their struggle against nuclear weapons.
With no clear frontrunner this year, several names are being discussed in Oslo: the Sudanese Emergency Response Network (ERR), Yulia Navalnaya, widow of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, or the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (ODIHR).
Halvard Lægreid, a research director at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, notes that in recent years, the Nobel committee has shifted focus back towards more foundational issues, more closely aligned with classical ideas of peace, while maintaining connections to human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and advocacy for women.
Lægreid concludes, “My intuition suggests that we are likely to see a less controversial winner this year.”
Furthermore, the Nobel Committee may reaffirm its commitment to a global order that clashes with Donald Trump’s aspirations by potentially honoring UN Secretary-General António Guterres and/or agencies such as the UN Refugee Agency or the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
The committee might also choose to award entities engaged in international justice, such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court, or organizations active in press freedom like the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reporters Without Borders. Alternatively, as has often happened, the prize might go to an unexpected recipient outside the usual speculation.